Mitt Romney and the Battle for the Presidency
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He is a strong contender, and perhaps the favorite, to win the general election in November, even if today’s polls suggest otherwise. He faces a president whom voters hold responsible for high unemployment. Despite his many shortcomings, Romney is a competent and qualified candidate for the presidency. He will be backed by wealthy Super PACs that will erase the financial advantage Barack Obama held in the 2008 election. And he has shown in the course of the primary that he can be a fierce campaigner. The Intrade prediction market currently gives President Obama a sixty-one percent likelihood of reelection. That number understates Romney’s chances of winning in the fall.
Romney’s famously elastic positions on everything from abortion and gay marriage to healthcare reform and climate change policy have ensured that his support in the Republican Party has never exceeded a weak plurality. He is detested by the Tea Party wing. And he has been trounced by Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in the conservative Southern states. Republican voters, bludgeoned into submission by Romney’s dogged competence, are ambivalent about his candidacy. But they will vote for him, even in the South. Their aversion towards Romney’s candidacy is but mild distaste compared to the bitter revulsion they feel towards Barack Obama.
The anemic recovery in the US has made President Obama vulnerable, and Romney has focused his campaign on a single issue: jobs. The truth is that the actions of a president make a relatively small difference to the short run unemployment rate. The business cycle is a mighty wave that washes away the fragile sand castles of most government policies. Whether a president oversees a period of prosperity or recession is mostly down to chance, and, to a lesser extent, the wishes of the House. But voters don’t share this view. The unemployment rate, or perhaps the rate of change in the unemployment rate, is an important correlate of a president’s re-election.
Romney argues that his private sector experience gives him particular insight into the workings of the economy and an understanding of what makes firms hire workers. His campaign says that he himself is responsible for creating thousands of jobs. These numbers are pure fiction for the simple reason that private equity firms are in the business of making money. Many of the companies they manage fail. Jobs created by successful firms that have been bought out are incidental to the primary goal of profit. This is, of course, how most jobs are made in a capitalist system. The fact that private equity firms are especially red in tooth and claw is not something to denigrate, but Romney’s success in business does not tell us much about whether he would be able to put Americans back to work.
What it does suggest is that he is a capable manager of large organizations. He showed similar mettle in turning around the struggling 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics. The games were a huge success, and ended comfortably in the black. Romney also ran a relatively successful administration as a centrist Republican governor in deep blue Massachusetts. He came close to balancing the budget, and worked with Democrats to provide health insurance to all residents in the state.
Romney graduated with degrees in law and business from Harvard, and is blessed with a large and picture perfect family. He is said to be disciplined and thrifty. In accordance with his Mormon beliefs, he has done a great deal of community service in his spare time. He is an exceptionally qualified candidate for the presidency.
But can he win? For all of Romney’s many commendable virtues, he is a stiff, even wooden, politician. Despite his oft-repeated professions of belief in the greatness of America, he will never be an inspirational figure. It is hard to imagine him winning on wispy promises of Hope and Change. His convictions on most issues are bizarrely malleable, even by the opportunistic standards of his political tribe. Many voters are convinced that he will say anything to get elected, and they are probably right.
Romney does not care all that much about guns, abortion, gay rights, or any of the cultural issues that divide American politics. He is a Republican of the old school that favors low taxes, light regulation of business, and a limited role for the government in economic life. He prizes efficiency above all else, and is willing to cut a deal. All this does not endear him to the Republican base, but his centrism will be crucial to winning the favor of swing voters.
It is said that Romney, perhaps because of his riches, is unable to connect with working class voters. Despite spending years campaigning for the land’s highest office, he remains inept at speaking about his wealth in anything but cringe-inducing phrases. In Detroit, he told an audience in the heartland of the country’s automobile industry that he drives a Ford Mustang and a Chevy pickup, but then proceeded to mention his wife’s “couple of Cadillacs.” His returns show that he paid a tax rate of 13.9% on income, mostly from investments, of $21.7 million in 2010.
Still, despite rising inequality and a growing sense that the economic dice are loaded, Americans don’t begrudge wealth. In the face of evidence to the contrary, they believe that they too will one day be moneyed. This belief in the American Dream is why Joe the Plumber struck such a resonant chord in the 2008 election. It is also why Obama’s wish to “spread the wealth around” can be used as a stick by Republicans accusing him of “class warfare.” Romney’s fortune will not be a major liability in a nation that remains center right at its core, and it might be an asset.
President Obama has his own problems connecting with working class voters. He lost the white working class vote by eighteen percentage points in the 2008 election. That gulf will almost certainly grow. The disaffection with Republicans that marked the end of the Bush Presidency will no longer provide the gusts to Obama’s sails in such crucial states as Ohio. Instead, he will face strong headwinds from a recovery that remains weak in spite of robust private sector hiring in the beginning of the year.
A majority of voters disapprove of the President's handling of the economy, and if the election comes down to a referendum on unemployment, he will probably lose. Many of his policies, including the Recovery Act, and the Affordable Care Act, remain unpopular, although survey respondents have favorable opinions on many of the specifics.
In the course of the Republican primary, Romney has demonstrated an ominous talent for striking at the jugular. He seized on Rick Perry’s weak debate performances and ill-considered comments on Social Security to reduce the once formidable Texas governor to a sideshow. In Florida, a resurgent Newt Gingrich was weakened by a fusillade of attack ads and knocked out by Romney’s probing questions in a debate on the eve of the primary. Romney has seen off challenges by Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, and Herman Cain. He will launch a disciplined and aggressive record on Obama’s economic record.
Crucially, Romney will have the money to implement such a strategy. The Democrats will see their fundraising advantage in the 2008 elections evaporate. The Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission eviscerated laws limiting the size of campaign contributions from wealthy individuals and corporations. This will benefit a Republican Party that is vocally opposed to redistribution of wealth. The Super PACs funneled great gushers of money to deliver a Republican majority in the house in 2010. They will play much the same role in the November election.
Obama remains the most talented politician of his generation, and in my view has an impressive record in office. Current polls give him a lead among key demographics, including women and Hispanic voters. He is the frontrunner in several battleground states. He is respected for his accomplishments in foreign policy and other areas, and is well liked on a personal level. On the other hand, Romney will have to beat a hasty retreat from many of the positions he took during a brutally hard fought primary.
But America’s long deleveraging will still be in motion in the fall, and the unemployment rate will still hover around the eight percent mark. Americans have grave doubts about giving President Obama a second chance, and Mitt Romney will press his advantage. Voters should think hard about whether the Republican Party, more ideologically extreme than ever before, can be trusted to hold the reins of power in Congress, the Supreme Court, and the White House all at once.