November 17, 2012

Juicy

Organic Labels as a Costly Signal

via Wikimedia Commons
I didn't know what a tomato could taste like until last summer. When I came home from work one rainy evening, my housemate, a farmer in Vermont, was standing in the kitchen in his overalls. Rapt, he was turning over a fist-sized fruit in his hand, carefully appraising its full, deep, dark redness.

Tomatoes are crucial to Indian food. But they’re usually employed as bit players in the company of onions, garlic, ginger, and spices to produce the amorphous thing known as curry. The only moments from my childhood that I can remember eating a tomato in its essential form were when my mother sliced one into sandwiches that were the sole exception to an otherwise unbroken parade of lunch-time gastronomic delights.

Six or seven other tomatoes from the summer’s first harvest sat ripe and fat on the white counter next to my housemate. They were a wholly different species from both their undersized sub-continental cousins destined for puree, and from the pale specimens that stare morosely at shoppers from the average American supermarket shelf. We cut thick slabs of burgundy tomato flesh and rich, pure flavors coasted across my tongue.

I’m not a farmer, so I can’t give you a comprehensive answer to the question of how a vegetable attains this sublime excellence. But I can tell you about the farm that produced those tomatoes. It is sixty acres in area, small by the gargantuan standards of California’s Salinas Valley and the endless cornfields of the American Midwest, but quite large in comparison to most farms in the developing world. It is owned by a husband and wife, who employ twenty odd workers, many of whom are high school or college students toiling in New England’s gentle summer sunshine. The husband is a hard taskmaster, and, importantly, very good at the business side of running a farm.

The land lies in the Upper Valley of the Connecticut River, and the soil is lush and well-watered. Each year’s bounteous haul includes spinach, asparagus, arugula, beetroot, strawberries, herbs, peas, potatoes, summer squash, zucchini, onions, green beans, melons, potatoes, pumpkins, winter squash, broccoli, cauliflower, and Brussels sprouts. It is all delicious.

The Upper Valley is dotted by such small farms, and their products do brisk business in an area full of politically liberal people who want their food to be locally grown, sustainably produced, and organic. The last qualification is especially important, and signs at the local farmers’ markets loudly announce the fact that the food is grown without the aid of chemically synthesized fertilizers, pesticides, and antibiotics.

Despite its popularity, this particular farm is not, in fact, organic. Many consumers may be unaware of this fact. But the vegetables are produced with evident care and still command a premium.

People choose to pay higher prices for organic food for several reasons. Chief among these is the notion that eating organic is better for your health. A recent Stanford meta-analysis found that there is, till date, very little evidence for this proposition. On average, organic foods were no more nutritious than their conventional counterparts, and carried the same health risks. People eating organic foods did show lower exposure to pesticides (although the other group’s exposure was also well within safe limits).

The results are preliminary, and subject to a host of qualifications. The 237 studies analyzed employed a variety of testing methods within a relatively short time period, and there is great variation in organic practices themselves. My view is that organic foods may have some health benefits at the margin, but these are likely to be vanishingly small in comparison to the gains from a whole host of other lifestyle changes: eating a mostly vegetarian diet, exercising regularly, and sleeping more. After all, an organic bacon cheeseburger is still a bacon cheeseburger.

And while many partisans of organic food believe that growing crops without pesticides and fertilizers is good for the environment, the truth is grainy and complex. Many organic pesticides are exceedingly toxic to human (and animal and plant) health, even if they are not chemically synthesized.

Norman Borlaug, the father of the Green Revolution, made the devastating point that there isn't enough nitrogen in the ground to grow enough food to feed the world’s population. Lower yields and higher losses to pests mean that more land would need to be switched to agricultural uses. More organic agriculture, at the limit, entails less land for the gazelle to graze and the tiger to stalk. Again, eating less meat is a more cost-effective method of environmental stewardship than growing food organically (though I realize that these steps are not mutually exclusive).

Many believe that the Green Revolution, which introduced hybrid varieties grown with fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation, made India self-sufficient in food crops and rescued it from terrible famines. It seems foolish to turn our back on science and return agriculture to a mythic era untarnished by modern technology or geographic specialization. Indeed, the lessons of the Green Revolution should be applied across the developing world.

But organic fruit and vegetables, in my experience, simply taste better. It’s often hard to judge the taste of a fruit, vegetable, or meat by its appearance, smell, and touch alone. The label “organic” serves as a costly signal of quality that is hard to acquire without tending carefully to the produce. Consumers, uncertain of whether they are actually getting a better product when they pay a higher price, use the organic tag to simplify their decision-making.

Yet, as my friend’s farm in the Upper Valley shows, “high-quality” and “organic” need not be synonymous. But that farm is embedded in a deep web of local relationships that ensure demand for its premium product. Customers know what they are getting and are happy to pay higher prices for it. To create a fertile middle ground between modern agricultural techniques, environmental stewardship, and demand for tasty food, we need to create a simple, cheap mechanism of communicating the signal of quality in a food market that is, and will become, more global than ever before.

October 16, 2012

Cheap Talk

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney Face Off for the Second Time

via Wikimedia commons
On the eve of the first presidential debate in Denver, Barack Obama's quest for a second term seemed destined for comfortable victory. His campaign had successfully portrayed Mitt Romney as a plutocrat unsympathetic to the plight of the middle class. Romney lent weight to this charge by giving a speech in which he foolishly dismissed forty-seven percent of the country as being dependent on the government’s largess.

In the weeks following the Democratic Party’s convention, Obama gained a significant advantage in national polls, and held even larger leads in swing states such as Ohio and Florida. Pundits and pollsters were united in the thesis that the debate wouldn't alter the course of the election. Voters cast their ballots based on economic issues, the thinking went, and this debate, like presidential debates in the past, would do little to change their minds.

As with many inferences from the social sciences, this one failed to predict the outcome of the debate. Watched by seventy million people, President Obama put in a listless, untidy performance. He looked tired and spoke unemotionally, spent a great deal of time taking notes, provided few specifics, and closed his argument with a weak, rambling statement. His challenger smoothly presented himself as a moderate problem-solver and assailed the president’s economic record with a full quiver of sharp statistics.

A series of polls has demolished the pre-debate consensus. The Pew Research Center had given Obama a lead of eight percentage points in the period before the first debate. After the debate, its data showed a twelve point swing towards Romney. While this poll may have been an aberration, the Real Clear Politics average of polls showed Obama’s lead narrowed from 3.1 points to less than a point, well within the margin of error. His advantage shrank among women, younger voters, and swing state voters. On Intrade, a prediction market, Obama’s odds of victory tumbled from close to eighty percent to about sixty-one percent today.

In April, I judged Intrade’s odds for President Obama’s reelection, which were then also sixty-one percent, to be too high. By dint of his education and track record as a competent manager of large organizations, I argued that Romney was an “exceptionally qualified candidate for the presidency.” I acknowledged that Romney’s “famously elastic positions” and “stiff, even wooden” bearing would dim his prospects in the election, but also noted :

In the course of the Republican primary, Romney has demonstrated an ominous talent for striking at the jugular. He seized on Rick Perry’s weak debate performances and ill-considered comments on Social Security to reduce the once formidable Texas governor to a sideshow. In Florida, a resurgent Newt Gingrich was weakened by a fusillade of attack ads and knocked out by Romney’s probing questions in a debate on the eve of the primary. Romney has seen off challenges by Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, and Herman Cain. He will launch a disciplined and aggressive record on Obama’s economic record. 

Obama is still the most talented politician of his generation, with major accomplishments to his name: the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, an expansion of health insurance to close to forty-seven million uninsured Americans, a successful restructuring of the auto industry, a sounder US foreign policy, and the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

But in April I wrote that “America’s long deleveraging will still be in motion in the fall,” and that “many of his policies, including the Recovery Act and the Affordable Care Act, remain unpopular.” In short, Obama would find it very difficult to defend his economic policies to voters who (mostly in error) blame or credit presidents for the fluctuations of the business cycle.

Ultimately, this is the main reason why Obama lost the first debate: he cannot run on his record of domestic policies. The unemployment rate has dipped to 7.8%, but twenty-three million Americans remain out of work. Regardless of whether he improves his style of debate, the President cannot change these facts.

As to the substance, there is disconcertingly little of it. Romney has rightly received a hiding from many quarters for laying out a lavish $5 trillion banquet of tax cuts without specifying how he would pay for them. Nor has he detailed how he would “repeal and replace” Obamacare, how he would put Medicare on a sound financial footing, or why the US should expand its already enormous military spending.

Yet, the President has laid out an equally spare agenda for a second term. The first result of a Google search for “Obama agenda” is a link to the 2008 policy proposals of “The Office of the President Elect.” His current platform is a wish list of such worthy goals as “doubling US exports by the end of 2014”, “creating 1 million new manufacturing jobs,” and “cutting the growth of college tuition and fees in half” with little indication of how these targets will be achieved through policy and within the constraints of a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. 

In June, Ryan Lizza of the New Yorker, wrote a long article about Obama’s agenda if he were reelected. Lizza suggested several possibilities: cap and trade legislation, immigration reform, and a grand bargain on taxes, spending, and the federal deficit. What is remarkable is that despite quoting numerous top administration officials, the article could not clearly answer the simple question in its byline: what would Obama do in a second term? If the president still cannot answer that question in his next bout with Romney, he is destined to lose the debate and with it, perhaps, the election.